Recognizing When Basketball Betting Odds Are Off
Oddsmakers set basketball odds for betting based on a variety of criteria. These factors include strength of roster, strength of schedule, recent performances, coaching, home or away considerations and injuries. Then, they toss this recipe of data into a virtual blender and the resulting substance that pours out of it is called a power ranking. This power ranking is then supplement by a few more outside factors, such as public perception of a team or, moreover, advanced bettors’ perception of the public’s perception of a team.
Together, the power ranking and peripheral factors result in point spread that is set for the game, and this time-honored method for formulating basketball odds for betting isn’t likely to change anytime soon. This is because the formula works. The oddsmakers supply their clients – legal sports books in the state of Nevada and offshore sportsbooks – with the recommended point spread for each game, and their clients would not come back for return business if their product didn’t deliver the desired result. That is, providing the foundation for those who accept bets to consistently take in more money than they pay out.
Although setting point spreads for sporting events might be an inexact science, it is getting closer to a refined art all the time. For instance, just take a look at the point spread or total for early-season college football games or college basketball tilts featuring two teams from obscure conferences. Even with very limited data in some instances, it’s uncanny how often the final score and total come within a point or two of the line that has been set, but if it were impossible to win, no one would ever place a wager, much less have the ability to put food on the table and pay the mortgage from professional sports betting as a select few are able to achieve. The key is being able to pick your spots and identify instances in which the point spread might be off based on factors that you can find by doing your own research and conclusions you can draw by making an educated analysis.
One of the keys is making sure you are selective in your approach. Experienced handicappers like to point out that one of the biggest advantages you have as a bettor is that the oddsmakers have to post a line for every game, but you have the ability to pick and choose the contests that seem most favorable on which to place a wager. This is similar to a casino’s edge in blackjack; they gain their biggest advantage in the fact that you, the player, have to act on your hand first. In sports betting, it’s the other way around. The oddsmakers play their hand first, and you get to react.
Conventional wisdom suggests that looking for value in underdogs first is the way to go. This is because there is more margin for error and two ways to win; your team doesn’t have to win the game for your bet to win and, what’s more, the spread provides a cushion that allows your team to bring home the cash even if it doesn’t give a terribly impressive performance.
There are some peripheral factors that are sometimes taken for granted in the setting of the lines. In college basketball, this is particularly the case when it comes to quality of coaching and emotional state of the players. These factors are minimal in the formula for the point spread, and there are oddsmakers who believe that coaching and the so-called “revenge factor” are overrated. While it’s true that great coaching or motivation to avenge a previous loss are moot if the team involved is vastly inferior to its opponent, in college basketball these considerations are relevant more often than not.
For instance, if a team has at least three returning starters, a coach with a respectable record and is taking part in a home game against a superior opponent that routed them the last time they played, it is worth looking at the underdog for a play. Go to the web site of the newspaper nearest the underdog’s home town and see what the players and coaches are saying about the rematch. Motivation plays heavily for student-athletes ages 18-22, and sometimes their whole season can hinge on being able to upset a conference front runner in front of its home fans.
This is just one example of a circumstance in which you can find advantage over the oddsmaker in betting college basketball. But a basic regimen of research, discipline and peripheral factors is always a good start.
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