NCAA Basketball Odds Can Make You Or Break You
There are many ways to make money from betting on the NCAA Tournament, and the opportunities from college basketball odds come from more than just the point spread. While many bettors prefer to fire on each individual game and either find this method the most profitable or simply enjoy the instant gratification that comes with cashing a ticket just a couple of hours after placing a bet, there is another long-term strategy that can give you action for the long haul and a potentially lucrative pay day.
These are called future bets, and they are provided by oddsmakers when they set college basketball odds on each team to win the NCAA Tournament. Although these odds are available from before the start of the season all the way to the end, it might be in your best interest to make a future wager after the seedings for the tournament are announced. Ultimately, the best way to maximize the value in your future bet depends on the team you choose to back. For instance, if you like North Carolina to win it all, and the Tar Heels are the consensus pre-season No. 1, you might want get your bet in before the season. You might get a price of 3-to-1 or 4-to-1 which could be the best return you’ll see on this club.
This is because the future college basketball odds becoming a moving target once the season begins. If North Carolina turns out to be as good as advertised, odds on the Tar Heels will slip to the point where they might be around even money or slightly better, which provides next to zero value for a future bet. However, this can work in your favor as well. If the favorite experiences a slump at some point in the season, their odds might turn in your favor, going back up to 4-to-1 or better. If you remain confident that they are the best team and that the slide is an aberration, this is a good time to get bang for your buck before the team rebounds and sees its odds drop lower again.
Underdogs are a different story. If your research suggests there’s a team that is poised to make a deep NCAA Tournament run but isn’t getting much attention in the early going, the sooner the better for your future wager. You might find the team at great odds of 40-to-1 or 50-to-1 but, if your prediction is correct, this will change quickly. If your team has the breakout season you envisioned, the oddsmakers will respond appropriately and you might be looking at 10-to-1 or worse in no time. Or, you can take a wait-and-see approach and hold on to your money until the NCAA Tournament pairings have been announced. Although the eventual national champion will have to beat some tough teams no matter where it’s placed in the brackets, it’s just reality that some teams have an easier road to the Final Four than others.
Sportsbooks will offer college basketball odds on both the eventual national champion and on teams to win their respective regions. It goes without saying that their potential road to the promised land should play a significant role in your handicapping of these wagers. For instance, a top seed might have a potentially dangerous game against the winner of a No. 8 vs. No. 9 game, perhaps because one of those teams underachieved during the regular season but is hot now and plays a tournament style that is difficult to overcome. Conversely, you might see the top team have a potential slate that looks like relatively smooth sailing, although you can’t take anything for granted in this tournament.
For an example, look at last year’s NCAA Tournament, in which all four top seeds reached the Final Four for the first time in the event’s history. A look at the bracket suggested that North Carolina and Kansas would each have fairly easy roads to the Final Four, and this turned out to be the case. The Tar Heels were hardly challenged in beating Arkansas, Washington State and Louisville to reach the Final Four, while Kansas coasted past UNLV and Louisville before squeaking out a two-point win over upstart Davidson in the Elite Eight. Conversely, Memphis and UCLA had potentially much tougher tasks, though ultimately the Tigers were the only one to face a murderer’s row of opponents. They knocked off tough Mississippi State, Michigan State and Texas squads to secure their spot in the Final Four. UCLA, on the other hand, benefited greatly from big upsets on the other side of the bracket that allowed them to avoid facing Duke and Connecticut, by far their biggest potential obstacles. Instead, the Bruins rolled past Western Kentucky and Xavier after barely surviving Texas A&M with a 51-49 win in the second round.
Suffice to say, the best value on a future would provide a combination of the team you like getting a reasonable price and with a potential slate of opponents that appear like favorable match-ups. Underdogs can provide value as well, but you have to pinpoint which top-seeded team your club must take down – and has a reasonable chance of doing so – to give your wager a fighting chance.
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