Tampa Bay at Green Bay – Sunday at 1:00 p.m. EST
It may be interesting to see what desperation does against total bliss. The Packers are firmly entrenched on the top of the NFL. Tampa took a serious blow last week and playoff hopes are nearing nil. The battle of the bays isn’t quite what it used to be.
How they match up:
Buccaneers D vs. Packers O
The Tampa D has been dropping. Their numbers are bottom third at best. It doesn’t help that they’ve been facing the league’s better teams and now they’ll face the best. Grabbing Albert Haynesworth off the scrap heap may have been a good move if Albert were anywhere near his most effective years. They’ve only taken the ball away 10 times and aren’t getting a whole lot of pressure on QB’s.
Don’t expect critiquing of the Pack. Too many are saying the Aaron Rodgers and the Packers’ offense will go down as the standard for offenses for years to come. Rodgers doesn’t ever seem to miss. Weakness? Maybe the running game. Maybe. Aaron has 28 TD’s and 3 INT’s. They almost have to try not to score to keep the numbers down. It’s the best offense in football.
You’d think the Bucs D would get a break. After two with the Saints, the Bears, 49ers and Texans, they draw Green Bay. Not sure what you can expect from the TB D. Certain what you can expect from the GB O.
Packers D vs. Buccaneers O
A defense that rides the pine while Rodgers cuts up the opposition can get complacent, perhaps take risks.
If Monday’s game with the Vikes can be any indication, they’re tired of hearing it. They have 17 picks and 22 sacks so they are making plays. Some have scored on them. But, when the offense is driving the ball all day, it surely is easy to lose one’s focus. Des Bishop and Clay Matthews each have 5 sacks.
While the Texans were striking early and often last week, the Bucs were sputtering. In fact, the offense isn’t getting much on the ground and the aerial attack isn’t finishing. Kellen Winslow has had some nice plays but for the most part, drives are not winding up in the end zone. After falling behind, 16-0 last week, they stalled at the Houston 15 with no points. A field goal before halftime was their last gasp as they couldn’t keep up in the 2nd half.
The heat is on in Tampa. They have to do something no one else has done if they are to remain in contention for a playoff spot. The somewhat maligned Packer defense may be drooling over this one.
Who will cover the point spread?
You would think the Bucs would have put up more of a fight at home against a good Houston team than they did last week. It could be that the weight of a very tough schedule has just taken its toll. The question surrounding the Packers is, “can they keep this up?”
The Bucs are 2-4 against the spread as the underdogs. The Packers are 7-2 against the spread, 4-0 as a home favorite. Bucs are getting 14 points. This has been a year when big point spreads have been covered. There are few things that can be counted on from week to week in the NFL. This looks like a no brainer, but if you’d like to use your brain when making your pick, click here and buy our expert selection.
Cincinnati at Baltimore – Sunday at 1:00 p.m. EST
A week ago these two were tied, just as they are now. But they were tied for first, not second. The Bengals are trying to prove themselves against the best two teams in the division. The Ravens are trying to prove they can pay attention for more than one week in a row.
How they match up:
Bengals D vs. Ravens O
Cincinnati’s defense has been solid as the Bengals try to get themselves established in this competitive division. They’ve basically stopped the run and haven’t done poorly against the pass. They’ll have a hole to fill moving forward as CB Leon Hall appears to be out for the season. The 24 Pittsburgh got last week tied a season high given up. The Bengals’ defense is looking very AFC North-like.
Who can tell which Joe Flacco is going to emerge? Joe was 29-52 last week after engineering a late drive to win in Pittsburgh the week before. The Ravens converted only 5 of 12 3rd down attempts. And that wasn’t exactly a shut-‘em-out type of defense they played in Seattle either. For some reason, they can’t seem to get Ray Rice going and it’s causing a few Ravens to wonder aloud why he isn’t more of a force.
Perhaps Baltimore will keep Rice on the shelf since the Bengals are doing so well against the run. Then again, Flacco needs to get the pressure to stay away while he picks out receivers. Baltimore has been a better offense at home than on the road.
Ravens D vs. Bengals O
It would help the defense if the special teams don’t fumble deep in their own end this week. They fumbled kicks twice last week. While the defense isn’t completely shutting teams down this year, they are certainly in the upper echelon when it comes to limiting the opposition. They stop the run and rush the passer with the best of them. They’ve also got to find some consistency regardless of who they are playing.
Andy Dalton has been one of the surprises of the NFL season. He did well against the Steelers last week, but made a big mistake at the worst possible time. It didn’t help to lose WR AJ Green to an injury after just one catch. Keep your eye on the injury wire to see whether Green will be able to play this week. Dalton seems to be cool under pressure, but they’ll need a few more ground yards to open things up a bit for the rookie.
Dalton will be facing another aggressive defense that can control the tempo this week. He’s been able to survive if not thrive with cool, which he’ll need again. Dalton’s baptism is in full swing.
Who will cover the point spread?
Cincinnati was able to win five straight then give the Steelers a good battle last week. This is definitely an issue of learning while on the job for the young Bengals. Who knows what’s going through the Ravens’ minds? One week it looks like they’re the team to beat in the division and then they look like their minds are elsewhere.
The Bengals are 7-2 against the spread, 5-0 on the road. The Ravens are 3-1 against the spread as a home favorite. Bengals are getting seven points. So far, the Ravens haven’t followed surprising losses with surprising losses. The Steelers are idle this week so someone is going to move into a tie with them for first in the division. One of these days Cincinnati will knock off a big boy. But will that happen this week? Buy this NFL pick for only $20.
San Diego at Chicago – Sunday at 4:15 p.m. EST
No one is less living up to the hype than the San Diego Chargers who’ve lost four straight. For the Bears, they’re overcoming the naysayers and competing for a playoff spot in the NFC. The Bears are playing as well as anyone, save Green Bay.
How they match up:
Chargers D vs. Bears O
San Diego’s pattern has been to fall behind and not be able to catch up. The defense is playing it’s worst football early in games. And they’ve been asked to cover short fields too. Their offense has been generous. LB Antwan Barnes has 6 sacks but there just haven’t been enough stops to keep the offense from falling too far behind. Eric Weddle has 5 interceptions. The D has to get a few things done for the O to have a chance.
The Bears’ offense is doing enough. It helps to have Devin Hester throwing in the odd return touchdown. The most important feature about the Bears’ offense is that they’ve scored in the 30’s five times in six wins. Matt Forte is clearly the Bears’ biggest weapon carrying and catching his way to the top of both categories for the offense. And Jay Cutler has limited mistakes while throwing for over 2000 yards.
For San Diego it is a matter of how it’s going to happen not that they’ll give up yards and points. And for an opportunistic Bears’ offense they are scoring points better than any other aspect of the game.
Bears D vs. Chargers O
None of the yardage yielded figures look great for the Bears. Still, they are in some ways overwhelming the opposition. They’ve turned the opposition over 20 times. Julius Peppers is a big part of it with sacks and pressures. Watch the injury wire to see if he’ll be playing. This is a more pliable Bears’ defense than we’re used to, but they are still tough to break.
Phillip Rivers and company are supposed to present an elite offense for the Chargers. They aren’t producing points. They’re fourth overall in passing yards, still, they struggle to get to the 20’s. Rivers has thrown 15 int’s, some at the worst possible times. Injuries have been tough. LG Chris Dielman will be out on Sunday. The O line in general is a banged up bunch.
This is a defense that thrives on the smell of the opponents’ blood. Surely, the Chargers are bleeding. But, Rivers is capable of making any defense look bad. There will be a desperate feel to the Chargers on Sunday.
Who will cover the point spread?
The Chargers are in one of the weakest, if not the weakest, divisions in football. For most 4-5 teams a loss would be the death knell to their season. Not the case for San Diego, but if they are to stay in contention and have realistic expectations, a win over a team like the Bears would be huge for their psyche. The Bears are going strong now and seem to be enjoying every minute of proving everyone wrong.
The Chargers are 2-7 against the spread, 0-3 as the underdogs. The Bears are 3-1 against the spread as a favorite. Bears are 3.5 point favorites. This spread may be a case of leftover disbelief. That the Bears can be this good and that the Chargers can be this bad. For their part, the Chargers seem to push everyone to the wire, good teams and bad. The Bears have Old Mo on their side right now. But, Mo has been known to jump ship in an instant. Who will Old Mo favor in this one? Get our expert selection for only $20.
Tennessee at Atlanta – Sunday at 4:15 p.m. EST
It’ll be difficult for the Tennessee Titans to find their way into the AFC playoff field, but they keep hanging around and if any of those ahead falter, the Titans could find themselves in position to play in January. The Falcons were on the verge of putting themselves in good position for a charge toward the post season. Funny what a few inches of territory can mean in the NFL.
How they match up:
Titans D vs. Falcons O
The Titans have been on something of a roller coaster, led by their defense. They’ve been vulnerable to the run; Houston had two backs gain over a hundred yards in their meeting. Fortunes depend on the unit. They’ve played well in victory, not so well in defeat. Seems simple. They do seem to have trouble with the teams whose records are over .500. Some experience here, but overall very young.
It will be hard for this offense to forget that they couldn’t get a few inches with a win over New Orleans on the line and they are left to scratch and claw for a playoff spot. They’ve been well balanced and maintaining their high middle status. Could say that’s the problem as much as it might be a positive. The Falcons just haven’t been able to roll on many this season. Julio Jones may not be ready to go.
These teams have similar issues facing them. Lose again and the road will be nearly impossible to negotiate. Atlanta could use some long plays. The Titans will be looking to get the ball back for their offense.
Falcons D vs. Titans O
Atlanta’s defense has been very good against the run. Ok against the pass. In a passing league, that’s not such a great thing. Linebacker Curtis Lofton has been their leader; forced a fumble against the Saints. They weren’t able to stop Drew Brees but they did make NO work for what they got. The defense had been doing well in the weeks leading up to the Saints’ game.
Perhaps the best aspect of the blowout of Carolina from the Titans’ point of view is that Chris Johnson ran for 130 yards. For a team with Johnson to be at the bottom in the rushing department isn’t fathomable. Matt Hasselbeck is settling into the Titans quarterback spot and should continue to grow. Nate Washington has been a dependable wide out.
This defense has been better at home, but certainly better against teams who don’t have an elite quarterback. For Tennessee, they’ve been full of surprises. To stay above water, the Titans’ offense needs to have a bit more consistency.
Who will cover the point spread?
Neither of these teams are a good bet to be in the playoff field. But this one is close enough that it may seem like a playoff game. Unfortunately for both, they’ll be scoreboard watching every week while they try to keep themselves in the race.
The Titans are 3-1 against the spread as an underdog. The Falcons are 1-1 against the spread as a home favorite. The spread, Titans +7. Can the odds makers factor in Atlanta’s mental state after giving their game with the Saints away? Are the Titans ready to earn a bit more respect? Want to find out the answers to these very important questions? Buy this NFL pick for only $20.
Philadelphia at New York Giants – Sunday at 8:30 p.m. EST
These two teams seem to revel in making the other miserable. The Eagles basically knocked the Giants out of the playoffs a year ago. This year, the Giants ruined Philly’s home opener when the Eagles were supposed to be embarking on a dream season. This time, it’s the Eagles who could upset the Giants’ playoff hopes.
How they match up:
Eagles D vs. Giants O
The secondary was supposed to be the strength of the Eagles‘ defense. Not if you were watching last week. And Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie has an ankle sprain that could get in the way of his play. The Eagles have to get way ahead because the defense is giving up 4th quarter leads at near record pace. In their first meeting, the defense yielded 15 points in the 4th.
A tough stretch in the schedule began last week in San Francisco. For the first half, the offense held their own. Eli Manning has moved himself up the ladder as a dependable quarterback. NY can go through stretches of sputter, but when the click is on, they go down the field quickly. Ahmad Bradshaw wants more carries and he looks like he can handle an increased load.
Manning is a patient man and against the Eagles, patience is surely virtuous. The Eagle defense is looking for some hole patch for their tires which seem to go flat late in every game. Big game for this offense. They need to put points up and get a win.
Giants D vs. Eagles O
This hasn’t been a spectacular defense but they’ve been very good at times. Like when they took Tom Brady’s comfort zone from him when they beat New England. Last week, they played the second hottest team in the league and kept the game close. The early parts of the second half were harmful. The Giants did a very good job in their first meeting with Philly.
Michael Vick has broken ribs but is likely to play. Vince Young would see his first action if Vick couldn’t go. Throw out the Dallas game and this has been anything but a dependable offense. LeSean McCoy and Vick have put a bunch of ground gains on the board, but it hasn’t always led to points. DeSean Jackson has been more of a distraction than an attraction on the offense.
Pressuring Vick doesn’t always work out the way a defense would like. Surely with broken ribs, contact would be something Michael may not want. This is one of those matchups that seems to favor the defense.
Who will cover the point spread?
The Giants are on top of the division, but they’ve got the Saints and Packers up next. This game is huge for them. As for the Eagles, they are always capable of living up to their expectations. If the physical limitations of their players can get past, you can expect this to be a typical Giants-Eagles game.
The Eagles have yet to be the underdog. The Giants are 1-2 against the spread as a home favorite. Giants are 3.5 point favorites. The Eagles don‘t get beaten badly…they just lose. They’re actually playing better on the road. This is decision time for both teams. No one has been able to get much separation in the division. Winning this game might just propel the winner to the division title. But, might’s not a great endorsement. Buy this NFL pick for $20.
Kansas City at New England – Monday at 8:35 p.m. EST
The Chiefs spent their first three games looking like imposters. Then the 2010, improved version showed up. Where did they go? Home losses to Miami and Denver have brought doubt back. The Patriots yo-yo was up when KC’s was down, down when theirs was up.
How they match up:
Chiefs D vs. Patriots O
In losses, this defense has been awful. Then there was the shutout win over the Raiders. Of course, the Raiders were in a quarterback mess then. They are not doing well against the run. Tamba Hali has been a beast of a pass rusher. But he’s it. They haven’t been able to take the ball away very often either. CB Brandon Flowers has 4 interceptions. They’ll need to take drastic measures this week.
Who would have thought the Jets would come to the rescue when the Pats offense was struggling as much as they can struggle. This is still the top throwing team in the NFL. Rod Gronkowski took over last week. And Tom Brady will find Wes Welker either early, late or both. The difference last week was that the Pats took advantage of their opportunities. We’ll see if they got their swagger back on Monday.
Kansas City’s defense has been porous at times and the pressure will be on against Tom Brady this week. The Patriots are back on top alone in the division and would like to stay there.
Patriots D vs. Chiefs O
This has not been a stellar season for the New England defense. And then they held the Jets. New York turned it over three times. The Patriots have been vulnerable. They’ve had the worst pass defense in the league. Still they were able to get it done last week against a team that seemed to be headed in the right direction. This is a no name defense. But they were effective last week.
Matt Cassel is anything but Aaron Rodgers but he is the closest thing Kansas City has to him. Make that was. Cassel appears to be out for the season. The offense has only produced 13 points in the past two games and Tyler Palko, not what you’d call experienced, is the back up. At their best, the KC offense doesn’t score a bunch of points, but keeping pace with the Bradys on Monday night may be impossible.
New England may have found the right mix defensively against their big rivals a week ago. There is no good time to lose a starting quarterback to injury but this may be the worst week to do that.
Who will cover the point spread?
New England has the lead in the division and all the tiebreakers should they falter a bit. New England’s schedule is virtually challenge-less down the stretch. Kansas City is in a weak division and could perhaps make a late charge if they lose this one, but without Cassel, they’re a long shot to do anything but secure a high draft pick.
The Chiefs are 5-1 against the spread as an underdog. The Patriots are 2-2 against the spread as a home favorite. Patriots are 14.5 point favorites. All signs point to the second straight Monday Night Football blowout. How KC reacts to being back in the spotlight, something that hasn’t been happening regularly for many years, without their roster in tact will determine how the Chiefs do against a Patriot team that surely feels like they got their momentum back last week. This looks like a blowout, but looks can be deceiving. Find out who WILL cover for only $20.
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