Buffalo at New York – Sunday at 1:00 p.m. EST
Fans of either of these teams would like to go back to their first meeting in week 9 and try to gather their fortunes together and go again. The second half of the Jets’ 27-11 win signaled the end of Buffalo’s rise to the top of the AFC East and it was the last time the Jets were smelling the divisional lead.
How they match up:
Bills D vs. Jets O
The Bills’ defense wasn’t the reason Buffalo came out of the gates strong this season. They’ve been vulnerable from the beginning. Lately, they’ve just been bad. The Bills have surrendered 106 points in their three game losing streak. CB Terrence McGee is out. The defense has been much worse on the road. They’ve been better against the run, but usually because the opposition doesn’t feel they need to run.
It would help if QB Mark Sanchez wasn’t helping the opposing defense. He threw his thirds pick 6 of the season in Denver. Recently, Sanchez has been running away from pressure more than the Jets would like. He needs some up front help. It wouldn’t hurt to get versatile Ladanian Tomlinson back. Shonn Greene left early last week, so the running game was down their top two rushers for much of the game.
This matchup was born in the infirmary. The Bills haven’t been stopping anyone and the Jets haven’t been doing much when they had the ball. The Bills don’t get a bunch of pressure on QB’s which should help Sanchez. The Bills must keep the flood gates closed. The opposition has been scoring in bunches.
Jets D vs. Bills O
Surely the strength of the Jets. The team leans on them. How then to explain the length of the field drive by Denver to punch out the Jets late? It’s not that this defense has slipped much. The Pats burned ‘em but Denver only got them late…when it mattered most. In their first meeting, the Jets’ defense dominated the Bills. They’re better against the pass than they are against the run.
The most curious aspect of the Bills’ decline is the failure of the offense. They’ve still been able to run the ball, although Fred Jackson left the game early a week ago. But, WR Donald Jones will be out. They’ve only scored 26 points over their 3 game losing streak. The point totals from the first few weeks are somewhat deceiving. The Bills scored a lot in late comebacks. They may have lost the spirit to do that.
The Jets have had a few extra days to figure out what happened on that late drive. They will need to take control of the Bills and not let up. For Buffalo, it will be imperative for them to control the ball. Jackson can help if he’s able to go.
Who will cover the spread?
These teams are tied at 5-5, but they don’t feel like it. The winner will be no less than a game out of the last wild card playoff spot. Buffalo even sounded clueless in the post game comments from their loss to Miami. The Jets seem to have trouble controlling emotions. These are clearly damaged teams, only one of which will have a relatively good chance to play in the post season.
The Bills are 1-3 against the spread on the road. The Jets are 5-6 against the spread. Odds makers apparently think Buffalo has fallen on tough times. Jets are 9 point favorites. The only reason to believe that the Bills might be competitive enough to stay within 9 points is that the Jets haven’t been able to pull away from anyone. Except of course the Bills a few weeks ago. For a team that had themselves in the Super Bowl, it’s incredible that New York is sputtering like this. Winner still in the chase, loser likely not. Will the sputter continue? We know. Get this NFL pick for $20.
Tampa Bay at Tennessee – Sunday at 1:00 p.m. EST
This is a matchup of the fallen and the nearly fallen. The Titans have a chance to sneak into the playoffs. They trail a wild card by a game. Tampa is now in need of a sweep and a bunch of help. But they gave the Packers one of their better games last week. Can they play spoiler?
How they match up:
Buccaneers D vs. Titans O
The Packers scored 35 on the Bucs last week. But they had Aaron Rodgers talking to himself. Elbert Mack picked Rodgers, only the 4th from the Green Bay superstar all season. Penalties killed Tampa defensively. They had 3 off sides calls go against them and were flagged for penalties by the secondary on one drive. The man to man approach slowed Rodgers at least. Unfortunately, they’ve dropped 5 of 6.
One might have expected RB Chris Johnson to come around by now, but not yet. Matt Hasselbeck is banged up, but if the injured elbow can take it, he’ll be the Titans’ QB. Jake Locker did well in Matt’s place. He may be ready to get some PT. The offense has hurt itself with mistakes. They’ve done well against the league’s pretenders, not so well against contenders.
It doesn’t seem that Tennessee has much weaponry, at least not weapons that have done as expected, but they’ve been able to stay alive for a playoff spot. They need to find a way to exploit the Tampa D, or they won’t be in it anymore. Tampa’s defense is close, but haven’t been able to control offenses.
Titans D vs. Buccaneers O
This defense is about in the middle of the pack. And, like the offense, they do better against the weaker teams. Last week, Michael Turner turned in a 100 yard rushing game against them. And in fact, the Titans are weaker against the run than the pass. LB Colin McCarthy was banged up but played last week and played well. Tennessee’s defense has a tendency to give up big plays.
LeGarrette Blount had a strong game a week ago, in fact, Josh Freeman had one of his better passing days. The Bucs played with a degree of urgency. Bucs ball carriers and receivers broke tackles and had the champs on the ropes all day. Freeman has thrown 15 int’s. Kellen Winslow had a nice game against the Pack. This unit was hurt by penalties last week as well.
Tennessee needs to focus on Blount better than they focused on Turner. If Freeman has a running game, he can pick the Titans apart. But the Titans have not allowed a bunch of points to unsuccessful teams. No doubt their post season aspirations are stronger than Tampa’s.
Who will cover the spread?
The main question will be do the Titans still have the impetus to compete for a playoff spot. They could go 9-7 which isn’t great, but for now, there is a chance. For Tampa, they’ll need so much help that playoffs can’t be their motivator. If they can stay on track to interfere with the opponents’ hopes, then there’s plenty of reason to put it all on the field of battle.
The Buccaneers are 4-6 against the spread. The Titans are 1-4 against the spread as favorite. The Bucs are getting 3.5, a position the Titans haven‘t done well from this season. Odds makers are saying that this is a tossup with the 3 points for the home team. Neither of these teams has a great future to be playing in January. But there are other reasons to be playing hard, like convincing management that you belong in future plans. Both teams are expecting better in years to come. If you are unsure which will think their future is now, just click here and buy our winning selection.
New England at Philadelphia – Sunday at 4:15 p.m. EST
Things are back to normal in the AFC East. The Patriots have discovered an effective defense and the rest of the combatants have dropped out of the race. For the Eagles, they’re wondering which team they are. The one that just beat the Giants in New York or the one that lost at home to Arizona.
How they match up:
Patriots D vs. Eagles O
Three weeks ago the Pats had lost their second straight and were nowhere defensively. On Monday they shut down the Chiefs following a controlling performance over their biggest rivals, the Jets. Against the Jets, they turned them over three times and held NY to one touchdown while they were marching up and down the field in the second half. It is surely a no name defense, but they’ve done enough to support the offense in the last two games.
Without Michael Vick in the lineup, the offense struggled but not as much as may have been expected. Vince Young did throw for 258 yards. Running numbers increased after the game was in hand. The Eagles have lost their last two at home, but won a big divisional game on the road. The most you can say about this Vince Young led offense is that it didn’t cost them a game last week.
New England’s defense is getting better. Who knows where the Philly offense will be this week? They’re going to need to score more often this week than they did a week ago. If the Pats can get a couple of turnovers, this could be a long week for the Eagles.
Eagles D vs. Patrtiots O
It’s not that the Eagles’ defense has been bad, it’s when they’ve been bad. They have a tendency to blow leads in the 4th quarter. They would be aided by a ball control offense but that hasn’t always been there either. The offensive line has taken flack all year, but had a good one last week. They’ve been good running, but Young had time to throw as well. Keep an eye on the starting QB for Philly.
It’s Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski and Wes Welker. One of those two seems to be open on every play. And Brady’s eyes make it to their location as a surprise to the defense nearly every time. Gronkowski almost always has a mismatch on the opposition’s defense. He’s big, fast and has sure hands. And Welker just seems to have a Zen-like connection to Brady. Points will be scored.
The Eagles are tough to figure out. They lose games you don’t expect them to lose, and follow those with improbable wins. Their defense needs to get pressure on Brady or impede his receivers. Without these items, Brady will pick them apart.
Who will cover the spread?
Philadelphia can’t afford a stumble. They’ve got 6 losses already. But, this is far from a gimme, even though at home. If there is an edge for the Eagles it may be that the AFC East is fading fast and there may not be a sense of urgency for New England. This is likely the toughest game remaining on the Pats’ schedule.
The Patriots are 1-0 against the spread as an away underdog. The Eagles are 1-4 against the spread at home. The Eagles don‘t find themselves as home dogs very often, they‘re getting 3.5. Vince Young did ok in his debut in the green uniform last week. The Patriots’ defense looked better. If you’re looking for the better team you may want to click here and find out whose baggage is the lightest.
Chicago at Oakland - Sunday at 4:05 p.m. EST
There isn’t much room for slippage in the Bears’ plans. And certainly now, they’ve got to find a way to win without their starting quarterback. For Oakland, they’re at a disadvantage. They’re at home where they’re 2-3. On the road they are 4-1.
How they match up:
Bears D vs. Raiders O
When it matters most, this defense has been coming through with big plays. When a team comes from behind late, usually the offense gets the attention, but when they took the Eagles late, the defense shut Philly out in the 4th to make the comeback possible. Four Bears have multiple interceptions including LB Brian Urlacher. No defense shuts everything down in this pass happy league, but the Bears are there in times of need.
Carson Palmer is catching on in Raiderland. He’s thrown 7 interceptions since coming back, but none last week in Minnesota. The Raiders would love to have Darren McFadden back to go against a good run defense, but there are no signs that he will be. The decision seems to be strictly based on whether he’s 100%. He’s a game changer, but Palmer is getting a nice rapport with TE, Kevin Boss.
The Bears’ D is likely to feel added pressure to control Palmer and the Raiders this week, what with Jay Cutler’s injury. Still, Palmer has been rounding into form with good receivers and a capable ground game that could improve if McFadden plays.
Raiders D vs. Bears O
In Oakland’s last two home games, they’ve been outscored 66-24. Keep in mind that Palmer’s first few weeks included quite a few turnovers. They are surrendering too many points. There’s no problem with pressure, they’ve got three players with at least 5 sacks. Last week, the Vikings made the final score closer than it should have been. There’s got to be some comfort knowing that Jay Cutler isn’t back there.
Until last year’s playoffs, you may have thought Caleb Haney was a character from Green Acres. Now, you get a full dose of Haney for a few weeks at least. Shame for the Bears, their offense was looking better than it had for years. Devin Hester can only return kicks that are in the field of play. Oakland will be doing Haney a favor if they kick to him. Matt Forte can take a lot of pressure off of Haney. He’s having a great year.
Oakland’s defense may have needed a break like this to stay with Chicago. But, Haney does practice this offense, so one cannot assume that he can’t run it. The Raiders had better be prepared to stop Matt Forte.
Who will cover the spread?
For the Bears, every game is crucial. There‘s plenty of competition for that wild card spot in the NFC. Oakland can control their own destiny by winning. It’s been a mystery for the Raiders. They’ve beaten good teams on the road and lost to average teams at home. Both teams were on the upswing before the Cutler injury.
The Bears are 1-2 as an away underdog. The Raiders are 0-2 against the spread as the home favorite. The injury to Cutler surely has effected the spread. The Bears are getting 4.5. This one didn‘t have a spread in the first parts of the week. So many unknowns. Will Carson Palmer continue to gain mastery of the Raider defense? Will the officials take it easy on the Raiders since their coach complained? Will Haney do something few unknown backups have done? Will Matt Forte and Devin Hester be enough to get the Bears into the win column? A tough pick to be sure, but we have it figured out. Get this NFL pick for only $20.
Pittsburgh at Kansas City - Sunday at 8:30 p.m. EST
The Steelers are on course for another possible playoff run. Kansas City has fallen off the map again. But this is the type of game that has given Pittsburgh fits in the past. An underachieving opponent, in their house on national TV.
How they match up:
Steelers D vs. Chiefs O
Injuries have been a problem for the Steelers. Lamar Woodley is likely still out. Lawrence Timmons has played out of position to take the place of others on many occasions. Still the defense is top 10 in all categories and finally took the ball away a couple of times in their last game two weeks ago. The rest should help Pittsburgh’s defense as much as any aspect of the team.
A former Pittsburgh area QB, Tyler Palko, will get his second start for the Chiefs. He should be a bit more ready to go this week. The Chiefs haven’t put enough points on the board to win, period. They’ve lost 3 straight and have 16 points in those games. Chiefs QB’s have been sacked 25 times. They would need to control the ball to compete against the league’s best and they haven’t been able to do that.
You would expect the Steeler defense to be able to control a backup who hasn’t had much time to get acquainted with game speed. On the other hand, Pittsburgh hasn’t dominated many, meaning staying in the game might be all that’s needed.
Chiefs D vs. Steelers O
The defense has been able to keep the opposition within arm’s reach. They did win four in a row after a bad start and even threw a shutout at the Raiders. It seemed like the Chiefs were rolling back into contention then the defense couldn’t stop the Dolphins. It’s been downhill since. Defense had to defend short fields on Monday against the Patriots. Short week for the Chiefs.
And the Steelers have had two weeks to heal. Ben Roethlisberger’s thumb is broken but stable. He’s done this before and will be playing. The Steelers aren’t so much a running team any more but this may be a time to try and get Rashard Mendenhall going. There are quite a few weapons at WR. Question will be can Ben hit them with a taped up thumb. O line has been better but needs to keep Ben clean.
The Steelers seem to be ok with keeping the ball for long periods of time. They can hit you deep or shallow and run it when necessary. The Chiefs need to make them give it up from time to time to have a chance in this one.
Who will cover the spread?
Kansas City is only two games back but can only hope to win the division, the wild card seems out of the question. That would mean that they’d have to win a game like this one. For Pittsburgh, their eyes are always on the playoffs, and this is a game they cannot afford to look past.
The Steelers are 2-1 against the spread as an away favorite. The Chiefs are 5-2 against the spread as the underdog. Chiefs are a big home dog, getting 10. When a QB gets thrown into a situation like this, you’d expect it to take a few weeks before he begins to get comfortable. Palko is likely familiar with the Steelers having QB’d at Pitt and in high school in the area. If you’d like to know if that will help him against Pittsburgh, click here…
New York Giants at New Orleans – Monday at 8:35 p.m. EST
Next to the New York Giants in the dictionary is the phrase, “what was that?” And while everyone continues to dote over the Packers, the New Orleans Saints are heading toward another playoff spot and putting up some impressive numbers.
How they match up:
Giants D vs. Saints O
It would be wrong to say this defense isn’t very good, but there are times when they haven’t been good enough. Like last week when Vince Young drove right down the field and won the game for the Eagles. And remember that the Seahawks won in New York too. But they were nails against New England and put together wins over the Bills and Dolphins in that stretch too. Hard to understand. They are a sack machine on defense.
Drew Brees has had few stumbles. The Saints’ passing game is #1. They surely got a break against the Falcons with Mike Smith’s go for it call in overtime, but there is no time that Drew can’t dial up a scoring play. The Saints get an extra day coming back from their bye week so everyone should be as healthy as can be expected. Brees has thrown 11 picks. He’s been sacked 19 times, so he’s likely to go down once or twice this week.
The Giants defense feels like a great one. They are strong up front. But they give up scores and at the worst times. This won’t be a walk in the park for Brees, but if his receivers can get open, he’ll hit ‘em.
Saints D vs. Giants O
The Saints will bring people. S Roman Harper has 6.5 sacks. They are surely vulnerable to a solid offense. Again, this is a defense that is asked to slow down the opposition and come up with the occasional stop. They are not asked to be a shutdown defense. They are tough in the dome with a raucous crowd making it hard for the opposition offense to hear signals.
The Giants’ offense has been opportunistic and timely. They’ve taken games away in the late stages and been pretty good on the road. They’ve put away the Eagles and Patriots in their houses. Then there’s the weeks they are just off. Eli Manning is in the conversation about the best in the NFC but seems to add in a clunker like last week’s against the Eagles just when you’d least expect it.
The Giants’ offense could struggle at any time and it may have little to do with the defense it’s facing. If the Saints’ offense is on, it will be imperative for Manning and the boys to keep the ball. That’ll require a better running game than the Giants have shown.
Who will cover the spread?
The Giants’ schedule is entering the really challenging stage. Still it didn’t seem like they had a sense of urgency last week. In a tooth and nail division like the NFC East, they can’t afford another stumble. And the Saints really need this one to stay ahead of the Falcons.
The Giants are 2-1 against the spread as an away underdog. The Saints are 4-0 against the spread at home. Not much belief in the Giants in Vegas. The Giants are a 7 point dog. New York has that tough get going when the going gets tough attitude but they keep making their path to the playoffs very bumpy. New Orleans seems to be just teasing the teams behind them. But what’s with all this psychological mumbo jumbo? Who’s going to overcome their inadequacies and win and cover? Find out for only $20.
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